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# IPv4 Addresses Running Out; Where is IPv6?

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This week, the Number Resource Organisation (NRO), the official representative of the five Regional Internet Registries and who oversees the allocation of IP addresses, announced that less than 10 percent of IPv4 addresses remain unallocated. Although this should be a concern for all who use the Internet, the numbers (and letters) are often glossed over, with everyone assuming that it's someone else's responsibility to fix it. But if it's not addressed in the near future, the ramifications could be huge.

First, some background. Every computer or mobile device that can talk to the Internet needs a globally unique address. This allows the device to send network data out to a remote host (say, www.infoq.com) and get the right data back. To make things easier for humans, the Domain Name Service (DNS) translates familiar names into such IPv4 addresses. For example, when you browse to this website, DNS translates it to the globally unique 63.246.7.184; and whenever your browser sends a request, it leaves a 'return to' address like 216.239.59.99.

These four numerals are known as the IPv4 address, or sometimes just IP address. Given that each one can be between 0 and 255, there's about 4.3 billion possible IP addresses. Clearly, there's an upper limit to the number of devices – and in comparison, there's 6.7 billion people on the planet. Even in an ideally distributed world, that still means that there's on average one IP address for two people; and yet, in the West, there are many devices which may be networked (not to mention the number of mobile phones, which already is estimated to be over 4 billion).

Not all IP addresses are available for global routing. Those between with 10.0.0.0 - 10.255.255.255 are defined to be a privately routable subset, along with 172.16.0.0 - 172.31.255.255 and 192.168.0.0 - 192.168.255.255. The latter range may be familiar to those using automatically assigned addresses in local networks. Furthermore, some IP addresses are defined to be multicast, so 224.x.x.x, 232.0.0.x and 233.0.0.x are defined to be multicast address spaces.

The net effect of all this is that there's less than 4 billion IPv4 addresses to go around. The NRO looks after the distribution of these addresses to the local Regional Internet Registries (RIRs), who in turn then distribute those IP addresses to ISPs that connect you to the Internet.

The news is essentially that of the address space, less than 10% remain in the global unallocated pool, or around 400 million addresses. That might still seem a lot, but they're a non-renewable resource, and once they're gone, they're gone. OK, so we might be able to recycle a few blocks but the effort (both legal and practical) would be immense, and only postpone the inevitable by a matter of months. Counters exist which estimate the final exhaustion date, but is expected to be in the 2012-2013 timeframe. After the central registry runs out, the regional registries will have enough to keep going for maybe another year (depending on demand) but that of course assumes a business-as-usual attitude, rather than a gold-rush stampede to get the last remaining IPv4 addresses.

## What happens when IPv4 addresses run out?

The simple answer is: not a lot. The Internet will continue to function mostly as it does before; you'll still be able to browse new sites, and so on. However, what will happen is that no new businesses can start up on the net, at least, without multi-hosting on an existing IP address. In short, it could be a slowdown in the Internet economy that has ballooned over the last decade.

There are those who claim that NAT will solve the shortage at the client side (which hides a set of non-routable addresses behind a signle globally routable IP address) - but even this has limits. Assuming each computer is actively connecting to around 25 outgoing ports simultaneously (not a difficult number to achieve with a few web pages open, the odd mail client and social networking application), combined with the fact that most NAT-level routers can only handle mappings for up to 50,000 ports at a time, means that at best, a globally routable IPv4 address can only field another 50k items.

Furthermore, NAT can't be used for servers or other websites which need to be connected; they can only be applied on the client connecting in side. Regardless of whether this solves the problem of an ever growing list of clients, once the IPv4 addresses run out there can be no new servers.

## Enter IPv6

The transition won't be easy. IPv6 devices can talk to IPv6 devices, and IPv4 devices can talk to IPv4 devices. Fortunately, all major recent operating systems and hardware support IPv6 natively and will automatically enable it when added to an IPv6-enabled network. The easiest transition is therefore to provide dual-hosting which will allow a computer to speak either in order to reach its destination.

However, there may be services which are only available over IPv4. For example, Google is only available via IPv4 at www.google.com; they have a different website at ipv6.google.com which is visible over IPv6 networks only. (If you can browse to the IPv6 variant, then your computer is already connected to IPv6.)

Windows systems generally prefer to use Teredo tunneling, and with Vista automatically enabling IPv6 if it is available, it means that we have a way of moving forwards during the transition phase to IPv6.

Note that both 6to4 and Teredo are intended to be transitional; that is, they are not going to last much past a decade (after which we'll be on IPv6 natively in any case). At that point, the IPv4 Internet can be retired, although the final phasing-out may take some time.

## Current state of play

You'd think that with the end of the IPv4 space almost upon us, that the people looking after the Internet connections would be on the case. However, the vast majority of ISPs don't know about IPv6; nor do many of the large websites and key infrastructure services (like www.direct.gov.uk). These will become generally inaccessible in an IPv6 world without a 6to4 client performing the transformation, but there's no sense of urgency. Even large telecos – like BT's 21st Century Network – are still firmly stuck in the 20th Century, as they're looking at rolling out an IPv4 upgrade to Britain's electronic brain.

ISPs will be the first place this hits; and ideally, they should be at the forefront of the rollout. Yet there's less than 1% of the global users on IPv6 at the moment; although some countries like France have a greater proportion thanks to central IPv6 tunnel providers.

In 2008, China showed that it could host the Olympic games using IPv6, and with the increasing number of Chinese users, the national strategy to roll out IPv6 is well underway. There's a list of IPv6 deployments by country; a number of early movers are aiming to get ahead with IPv6 networking.

## Summary

IPv4 addresses are a finite and nearly depleted resource. Whether interim solutions like reclaiming 'dark' IP space or recycling unused IP addresses happens, this will only delay the inevitable by a matter of months. IPv6 has been shown to work in large-scale deployments, and are supported by all operating systems, so the completion of the roll-out to IPv6 is now in the hands of the ISPs, who incidentally have the most to gain/lose through this transition. Yet reports still suggest that a 1% penetration rate of IPv6 hosts, which means there's a long way to go.

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• ##### The transition to IPv6 is quietly underway

by Paul Duffy /

by Sven H. /

• ##### IPv4 Web site works in IPv6 with Instant6

by Instant6 Information /

• ##### The transition to IPv6 is quietly underway

by Paul Duffy /

Your message is awaiting moderation. Thank you for participating in the discussion.

Comcast in trials ...

www.comcast6.net/

LTE makes it mandatory ... IPv6 support is mandated. IPv4 is optional.

Smart Grid will most likely mandate IPv6.

• ##### IP Hamstering starting yet ?

by Sven H. /

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I wonder, if similar to the domain hogging, organizations would start to grab batches of IP4 soon and then resell to you for lots of \$ when you try to get a new web server connected ?!

• ##### IPv4 Web site works in IPv6 with Instant6

Your message is awaiting moderation. Thank you for participating in the discussion.

Well to have all of those LTE IPv6-only mobile phone users to be able to see your existing IPv4 web site you can just use Instant6. Very quick, no fuss and no changes to your existing site.

the paid version also allows you to receive emails from those IPv6 only users - again without any change to your existing mail server!

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