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Six Impossible Things

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Summary

Kevlin Henney takes a look at six specific impossible things that shape the limits of what people can develop, from integer representation to the minefield of task estimation and prioritization.

Bio

Kevlin Henney is an independent consultant, speaker, writer and trainer. He is co-author of two volumes in the Pattern-Oriented Software Architecture series, editor of 97 Things Every Programmer Should Know and co-editor of 97 Things Every Java Programmer Should Know.

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Transcript

Henney: My name is Kevlin Henney. I'm here to talk to you about six impossible things. That idea of six impossible things comes from one of the Alice books, "Alice in Wonderland," is the first book. "Through the Looking-Glass" is the second book by Lewis Carroll. The White Queen is asking Alice to believe in something that Alice is like, "I can't believe that. It's impossible." The Queen just dismisses that, says, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast. I want to emphasize this idea of impossibility, because we are often taught that nothing is impossible, just takes more time, more effort. Anything is possible. At the same time, we also sometimes brand something as impossible, when actually it's just ridiculously hard and not feasible. That's not the same thing. Somebody says, that's impossible, it would take 1000 years. Then they've just told you the circumstances for its possibility. There is a distinction here. I'm actually interested in the things that are challenges that we can't meet directly, we may work around them. We may use our ingenuity. We may pull back and innovate in other ways. There are certain limits, limits defined by mathematics and physics that every now and then hit in software development.

Representations Can Be Infinite

I'm going to count these down, let's start at six. Representations can be infinite. This is impossible. You'll say, how? Surely I can represent infinity, in my floating-point numbers, I can do that, plus or minus infinity. Yes, you're representing, it's a stand-in for infinity. It's not actually infinity. There are no infinities in the physical universe. Infinity is a mathematical concept, not a physical one. There's a distinction here. We are using a placeholder to say, this thing is infinity. It's like infinity, it doesn't behave like infinity. It is not itself infinity, it is much more bounded. There are also other concepts that lie beyond finiteness. For example, not a number, is not a finite numeric concept. This is perhaps one of the most familiar to people in their day to day use of applications in the web, we get thrown back with NaN, it's not a number. Sometimes it's as frustrating as not being able to complete a flight booking. Other times it can be a little more dramatic. This happened in 2020. Driverless race car drives into a wall. What had happened is during the initialization lap, something had happened which caused the steering control signal to go to NaN. Subsequently, the steering locked to the maximum value to the right. This was a bit of a state management issue. It was interesting when I tweeted this originally, somebody had pointed out to me, are you saying that these applications that they use JavaScript? I was like, no, that's not at all the same. NaN is used outside the realm of JavaScript. It comes from IEEE-754, and IEEE-854 standards. This is the 1980s. We see NaN errors all over the place. JavaScript, thanks to its long standing idea that there is only one numeric type, and it's a very atypical numeric type, floating-point type, is its only way of expressing numbers historically. It's a limitation to do with that, and that therefore, is very public facing.

When it comes down to floating-point representations, there was a piece in "97 Things Every Programmer Should Know," the piece by Chuck Allison, called floating-point numbers aren't real. He makes this observation. This is important because real numbers have infinite precision, and are therefore continuous and nonlossy. In fact, real numbers are uncountably infinite. Between zero and one there are an infinite number of numbers, and we are not able to represent them all. What we are ever going to do is approximation. Floating-point numbers are about approximation. They have limited precision so they are finite, and they resemble badly behaved integers. These are badly behaved integers. They don't behave as you would expect. It's a little more than that, because it is not simply that they are badly behaved integers. Integers are not always that well behaved either.

One of the things that we learn is that most languages present us with integers that are unlike true integers. True integers are unbounded, they are countably infinite. A 32-bit integer is not countably infinite, it is countably finite. We see it thrust into our faces every now and then. Here's one from a few years ago, Visual Studio telling me that my license will expire in about 2 billion days. That number, if you come from outside software development that looks just like an arbitrarily large number. If you're a software developer, you look at that and you go, yes, that's 2^31 minus 1. That is the maximum value of a signed 32-bit int. That's a little bit suspicious. We can also see there's something else going on here as well. Somehow, something got set to int max value. Also, notice your license has gone stale and must be updated. Surely that's not right. My license is good for a few 100,000 years. I'm good here. Clearly, the number that is being used for comparison is different. This is likely to be something that manifests in the presentation layer rather than in the core. It does confront us with the boundedness and the limitations. As it were in errors, we tend to find we confront the finiteness of our machines.

We might be tempted to try and prove things. There are limits to proofs, and there are limits to the practicality of proofs. There's also something else when we talk about the limits of proof. This was inadvertently highlighted in a piece by Jon Bentley, 1983. During the '80s, Jon Bentley had a column in Communications of the ACM, Programming Pearls. These were collected in a number of books, Programming Pearls, more Programming Pearls. Then there was a second edition of Programming Pearls in the '90s. This one, what you find in the first edition, writing correct programs is interesting, because he presents a binary search algorithm. He presents a binary search algorithm and proves that it is correct. Here's the pseudocode that he presents for it. Of note there is a three-way partitions. In that case, there's a three-way partition in terms of the comparison, then he annotates this more completely. All of those things in curly brackets that say MustBe, basically MustBe is an assertion because it's an invariant, a thing that must be true at that point. He uses this to demonstrate the correctness of this algorithm. One of the major benefits of program verification is that it gives programmers a language in which they can express that understanding. We should always be on the lookout for opportunities to improve our vocabulary, our ways of expressing and understanding certain problems, more different points of view can be very helpful.

He also observes, this is not the be all and end all. These techniques are only a small part of writing correct programs. Keeping the code simple is usually the way to correct this. He also highlights another aspect where our emphasis is drawn, where our attention is drawn. Several professional programmers familiar with these techniques have related to me an experience that is too common in my own program, when they construct a program, the hard parts work first time, while the bugs are in the easy parts. You've probably had this experience. You know it. You're so focused on the bit that you know is hard, you put so much attention. You manage the detail, and you get it right. You completely overlook something else that's been invalidated or something else that should have been changed in conjunction with a more complex thing. This demonstrates to us that we have a blind spot, but that blind spot is in fact deeper than what he's described.

Here's code from the Java libraries. This is in the binary search method that is found in the collections utility classes developed by Josh Bloch. Josh Bloch was a student of Jon Bentley, and Josh is using the three-way partition in there. Josh Bloch is using the approach that Bentley proved was correct. This works just fine until you use a very large array. This is the point, very large arrays did not really exist in the 1980s and the 1990s. This is why this bug was only found and reported in 2006. There was a problem here. In any binary search, no matter how you're doing it, you're going to end up with trying to establish the midpoint. Binary search is about searching between midpoints and halving the distance appropriately. The intuitive way that works with integers is that you take the low point you've been searching, and the high point, and you find the midpoint, you add the two together and you divide by two. It's the arithmetic mean. That's fine. There's only one problem. This is Java. Java doesn't have integers, it has ints. Ints are truncated, they are not countably infinite. They are countably countable. They are countably finite.

If you have a large value that is low, and a high value that is low, when you add the two together, they won't make a very large number, they'll make a very negative number. That's the point. You simply didn't have arrays that were going to be this size. You did not have arrays that were going to have 2 gigs worth of entries, until you did. What we end up with is this assumption. This assumption was that ints behave like integers, and they don't. The one thing we know is that ints are not integers, they actually follow a different form of arithmetic. Majority of the operations most of the time behave like integers, but they're not integers. We fooled ourselves. It's so easy to follow that habit. The fix is relatively simple, what you do is you find the distance between the low and the high. You halve that, and then you add that to the low point. We can see in the original proof that the assumption is here. He is assuming that he is using integers, but he's not. He's using integer division on integers, except that that's not what's actually going on.

We find other confrontations with the boundedness of numbers, and again, back to infinity. This is the USS Yorktown. It's a U.S. Navy cruiser, that's since been decommissioned. In 1998, it basically was dead in the water for about 48 hours. Source of the problem? They made a change from a Unix to Windows installation. This was originally published under the issue of problems with Windows. Actually, it was not a problem with Windows specifically. The source of the problem on the Yorktown was the data contained a zero where it shouldn't have done. When the software attempted to divide by zero, which is a big no, remember, there are no infinities. A buffer overrun occurred, yes, big time, crashing the entire network and causing the ship to lose control of its propulsion system. Divide by zero is something that is not going to crash Windows. Most likely what this is, given that this was networking software, this is probably the driver and it runs in kernel mode. That is what caused the problem. This was a custom driver and Windows do not have sufficient defenses, with the driver for dealing with this. As Shakespeare observed, this is the monstrosity in love, that the will is infinite and the execution is confined, the desire is boundless and the act a slave to limit. There are no infinite representations.

Every Question Has an Answer

Coming to number five, not every question has an answer. It turns out, we can ask more questions than we can get answers to. To demonstrate this, many years ago, back before Facebook was busy destroying democracy. I submitted a bug report to Facebook and I was told that my feedback would be used to improve Facebook. That did not apparently happen. Thanks for taking the time to make a report. How much time? That took me back quite away, 31st of December 1969. That seems familiar, that's really close to another number. What we need to understand is that if you're a real full stack developer, not a JavaScript developer who does frontend and talks to a database. If you're a full stack developer, you know how to program in C. The full stack is really deep. Everything is ultimately built on C at that level. The time function in C, what does it measure? What is it responding? On most platforms that use time, or have time, the implementation is based on POSIX. The POSIX standard says the time function shall return the value of the time in seconds since epoch. When is epoch? This is really easy to find. It's actually quite a popular class of errors. You can actually find that out. What is time when it is zero? It's the 1st of January 1970. A stroke of good luck leads you into that. It's fairly unlikely that Intel were distributing drivers on the 1st of January 1970, for Windows operating systems. This is a classic zero initialization fault. That is what I thought would go wrong, a zero initialization fault. Then, a time zone shift. I'm based in the UK, Facebook is American, therefore, that's West and I was negative time-wise from where I am, so therefore I assumed a negative time adjustment. That would give you zero initialization, and then back into 31st of December.

Actually, there is another explanation that in more recent years I've come to consider as more plausible. Going back to the C Standard, the value of minus one is returned from time if the calendar time is not available. That might seem initially, how can time not be available? Surely, time is always available. That's the shortfall here. No, it isn't. Time is a service, it can fail just like anything else. When you involve time in your application, it's not some global variable, it's asynchronously updated that you can call from a static method anywhere. APIs that do that are slightly misleading, you're actually coupling to an external dependency. Like anything that involves that, like accessing anything across the network, that's subject to failure. It's not common that you'll get that failure. That's not what we're discussing here. We're not discussing frequency, we're discussing possibility. It is quite possible that minus one is returned. If minus one is returned, then that will be interpreted as one second before midnight, which will give you 1969.

Another area of interest, when we talk about this stuff is algorithms. Algorithms for people who've done computer science degrees, they've done algorithms to death. What is it? Because the word is widely misused these days in association, and widely misused and over-generalized as something intrinsically nefarious relates to machine learning. It's nothing more complex, and it's quite innocent. It's a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem solving operations, especially by a computer. To make things a little more exciting, if you are sick to death of computer science and sorting algorithms, let's have fun with esoteric algorithms. I've been writing about esoteric algorithms on my blog post on and off for a while. Sleep sort, drop sort, and this one's permutation sort. Permutation sort, the complexity of this thing is grossly inefficient. It has factorial time complexity. It's shocking. We can consider it as a systematic but unoptimized search through the permutations of the input values until it finds the one arrangement that is sorted. For 10 elements that's potentially 3 million comparisons that it's going to perform. This is hugely inefficient. It's also great fun. It's also a useful provocation. It's not something you'd ever put into production code, except perhaps if you ask them, what are your performance requirements? We have no performance requirements. Use permutation sort. If you use permutation sort, that person will discover they do indeed have performance requirements, it's just they didn't know what they were. They didn't know the boundary. Demonstrate where the boundary is.

Let's do this in Groovy. I need to work out whether or not something is sorted. I've got a simple predicate function here. That figures out that's correct. Now, here's permutation sort. Permutation sort, I can just use the permutation generator. I use the permutation generator that will systematically return me an iterator, permutation generator is iterable. All I do is I just keep on going. If it's sorted, then I return the permutation. Otherwise, keep on going. There's a thought here that surely there can be nothing worse than permutation sort in terms of performance. Yes, don't be so sure. I recently wrapped up on writing about bogosort. Bogosort is interesting, because bogosort is not systematic. Bogosort takes a slightly different approach. It just randomly shuffles, not systematically, it randomly shuffles and checks whether they're all sorted. We might naively write it like this while it's not sorted, then shuffle the values. That does give a free pass of the values that are already sorted. We're going to do a shuffle first. Here's where we definitely get terrible performance. Because this is interesting, we would just randomly shuffle it. Is it good? No. It's like throwing a deck of cards up into the air, and does it land, is it sorted? No. Ok, throw it again. That gives you a sense of the possibility that this is not the most efficient way to do things.

We might still have some objections and concerns. Why don't you, Kevlin, technically you are systematically generating it because you're using pseudo random numbers rather than real random numbers. That's a fair objection, but is not one sustained for very long. We can have access to true random numbers through the entropy of your hardware. The way this works on Java platform, you SecureRandom, and that uses a pseudo random number generator that is seeded off. There's one time where we use a number that is truly random. We're not doing this, people often use time, but time is not random. There are days it feels like that. Time is not random, but you're guaranteed that SecureRandom will give you something that is seeded in something that is as truly random as can be got from the hardware.

We have a potential objection. Is this now an algorithm? Is it still an algorithm? Why would I question that? Because an algorithm is a specific procedure. I've been very nonspecific, randomness is not specific. We've actually said there is a completely nonspecific part here. There is actually a deeper and more subtle objection. Procedure which always terminates is called an algorithm. It's not guaranteed to terminate. This could actually genuinely never ever terminate, which is interesting. There is no guarantee that the sorted sequence, it will appear. Of course, the probability is so close to zero, that it probably isn't even actually representable in a floating-point number. Every time I've ever implemented bogosort, it has always terminated. Then, how would I wait for the end of the universe or beyond? Here's a question, how do we test all this?

This is the origin of a very popular quote on Structured Programming, 50 years ago, this was published. Dijkstra has a popular quote, "Program testing can be used to show the presence of bugs but never to show their absence." It does demonstrate that we have this challenge, how do I demonstrate that this will always be correct, or rather, will always terminate? Here's a very simple example based test case. Every time I've ever run it, it certainly passes. I've taken a sequence of values, I tell you what the expected ones are, I bogosort it and I test the values I get are the expected ones. How do I guarantee? I want to be able to guarantee that this terminates, how can I do that? I can't do it in the algorithm, maybe I can have the test enforce that, and basically say, fail the test if it runs forever. Do we do it like this? That's not going to work either, because it turns out, it's not just a case that there is no end of time. It's not just the case that we don't have that constant available to us in JUnit. It doesn't actually mean anything. If we reach the end of time, then fail the test because the algorithm didn't terminate. Realize that doesn't really make a lot of sense. We just choose pragmatism, 1000 milliseconds. Yes, and that runs typically within a second. That's fine.

What we've done there is we've been pragmatic. We've also demonstrated, another reason there are no infinities. It's not just that physics doesn't tolerate them. It's that our patience won't. It also teaches us how to solve things like the halting problem that is related to termination. We can fix that very easily by putting timeouts in it. Indeed, that is how we address these problems. Where we are not guaranteed to ever receive an answer, what we do is we exchange the non-determinism of not knowing whether we receive an answer for the non-determinism of we receive an answer or we get told it timed out. In other words, we offer certainty and time, but we trade it for certainty and result. That's why timeouts exist.

Every Truth Can Be Established Where It Applies

Related is another impossibility. Every truth can be established where it applies. It's related to Godel's incompleteness theorems. Adrian Colyer did a really nice summary of this in a piece on fairness in machine learning. He highlights that, in common with a number of other things, the beginning of the 20th century there was this optimism that physics and mathematics will be completely known. Particularly in the light of the proof from Bertrand Russell and Alfred North Whitehead in Principia Mathematica. They have the goal of providing a solid foundation for mathematics. Twenty years later, Kurt Godel shattered the dream, showing for any consistent axiomatic system there will always be theorems that cannot be proven within that system. In other words, to prove those theorems, you have to step outside that. In other words, there are statements that are true that cannot be proven to be true within that context.

Summarized differently, Godel Escher Bach and perhaps a little more formally, "All consistent axiomatic formulations of number theory include undecidable propositions." Many people might say, that's great, Kevlin, fine, undecidable propositions, fine, axiomatic formulations and number theory, fine, but I'm dealing with code here. It turns out, code is equivalent to such a formulation. Everything that applies here applies to our code. There are undecidable propositions in code dependent on the context. Let me demonstrate that. Let's try and determine how long a piece of string is. To be precise, let's measure the length of a string in C. A standard function for this in C is strlen, back in the days before we had vowels and sufficiently long identifiers. What we've got is size_t, that is an unsigned integer type that is used for sizes. Char *, this is a pointer to the beginning of the sequence of characters. A string in C is delimited by a null. When we reach that null, we are done. We have measured the whole length of the string. We go ahead, we measure it. We set it up. We start with our result, it's zero. While the nth position from s does not equal null character, increment the count, return the count, we are done. This implementation is actually very similar to the one that you'll find in Kernighan and Ritchie's C Programming Language, and retain most of the naming conventions from there.

What truths can we establish? What must be necessary for this to work? Here's one, that pointer cannot be null. See, I can assert that. Here's another one. For this to work in a way that is defined, there must exist an n such that there is a null, and that every point between the beginning and that position n, are valid, and are well defined in the context of C. As long as you're not wandering across garbage memory and techy stuff that is undefined and inaccessible. You will notice that this is in gray, and also uses a bunch of symbols that are not native to C. That is because you cannot actually write this in C. It is not actually something you can assert on. It is not possible within the context of strlen, to prove that it can behave correctly. That's a simple way of looking at it.

We can actually see this in practice, we can change the context. I can demonstrate by changing the context, stepping outside strlen, into a test case here. Here, I'm going to present it with a valid string, "Be excellent to each other." I'm going to print out how long it is. I'm going to print the string and how long it is. Here we go. Be excellent to each other, 26 characters. I can demonstrate the correctness of that just by inspection and stepping outside, and by execution. Here, we're not going to provide enough space. I'm only going to provide five characters in space. In other words, not enough space for the null. Actually, C will allow you to write it in this form. We're not going to get null. When I run it, actually, there's a reasonable chance it will show five because memory may be null, but the fact that it did work is not a guarantee that it should work. Equally well, you could be cast into the void, heading towards the galaxy M87. Similarly, there's the idea that actually maybe the pointer itself is uninitialized. That's just garbage, and there you are inside a black hole in M87. The point there is not defined. There is no way to demonstrate the correctness of this inside the context of strlen. I can do it by inspection, with static analysis outside that.

Why is this relevant? Because a lot of people work in managed languages, and they're thinking, I don't need to worry about that undefined behavior. There are cases you can demonstrate that kind of Godel problem in other cases, but actually just always remember that in any large system, there is always going to be an element that is touching the void in this respect. In this piece by Thomas Ronzon in "97 Things Every Java Programmer Should Know," that Trisha Gee and I edited a couple years back. Thomas looks through and says, how can I crash my JVM? How can I crash my managed environment? In most cases, it's by stepping outside those, stepping outside context. As he says, write some native code, all the syntax of C, all safety of C. This is bigger than just that. As Adrian observes, one premise of many models of fairness in machine learning is that you can measure, almost prove fairness in a machine learning model from within the system, from the properties, the model itself, or perhaps the data it's trained on. However, we know we can't. To show a machine learning model is fair, you have to step outside. You need information from outside the system. This is also important for many of the metrics that we fool ourselves with.

This is a wonderful demonstration of this. What you're looking at is 99 secondhand phones that are running Google Maps. In 2020, in the first wave of lockdowns, Simon Weckert in Berlin, wandered around Berlin, and created virtual traffic jams. Notice, I'm using the word virtual traffic jam, just as is reported there on his website, virtual traffic jam, because that's not a traffic jam, is it? Google Maps can't tell you whether it's a traffic jam. It's not possible for Google Maps to do that. What it's possible for it to do is to try and establish and correlate between traffic jams and the presence of phones. Therefore, to determine, there's a lot of phones moving very slowly. They're all in navigation mode. There's a lot of phones moving slowly. Yes, therefore, that correlates with a traffic jam. Notice, I'm using the word correlation, it's not causal. What they're doing is they're doing it there. A lot of the time it's going to show you where the traffic jams are. Some of the time, it's not.

This is a reminder that many people are measuring engagement. I know what engagement is, my dictionary knows what engagement is. It's the state of being engaged. It's emotional involvement or commitment. Is that what people are measuring? You've got whole marketing departments trying to nudge up an engagement value. They're not measuring engagement, they need to stop using that word. We don't know whether or not people are engaged. In fact, the correlations are actually far weaker. This is engagement. We don't know how long people are spending actually looking at a screen. You can tell when somebody's moved off to another screen, but you don't know what they were doing before that unless you're doing eyeball tracking. That's a security issue. The point there is, I had this exactly yesterday. I was on a web page that I was on for a few seconds and I was going to go to another web page, but the doorbell went, I received a delivery. For 2 minutes, I was not on my screen. There is an engagement statistic somewhere that tells people that I was on that page for 2 minutes and 30 seconds. No, I wasn't. I was on that page for 30 seconds. The minute I got back down, I moved on to another page.

People are measuring clicks and shares, and that's what they need to understand. They're not measuring engagement. Engagement should always appear in quotes. We must be careful not to confuse data with the abstractions we use to analyze them. We do not always know the answers to the questions in the context in which they are answered. We do not know that that is a traffic jam. We do not know that that is engagement. We do not know whether or not this is actually a valid call to a particular method in a particular context. We cannot necessarily prove this machine learning system is fair by using all of the assumptions that we put in to that machine learning system. We need to step outside that to demonstrate that, see the bigger picture.

The Future Is Knowable Before It Happens

When we look to the bigger picture, let's also look to the future. Here is something that's impossible, the future is knowable before it happens. That seems obvious. We trip over that. Often, we do so because we don't appreciate the degree to which software development is actually an exercise in applied philosophy. It's about epistemology. It is about the nature of knowledge, as Grace Hopper observed, "To me programming is more than an important practical art. It is also a gigantic undertaking in the foundations of knowledge." In essence, a code base is a codification of knowledge. It's codification of the knowledge that we have about the problem domain and the solution domain bound together and expressed in a way that is formally executable. It's a formal specification of this knowledge. Therefore, knowledge is the heart of everything that we do. That means we have to have good models of what we know and what we don't know. Likewise, what correlates versus what is causal? What we know versus what we don't know. There are things that we know, we know, there are things that we know that we don't know.

Then it starts getting a little more exciting. There are things we don't know we don't know, these are often assumptions. Those are the things that are hidden until you have them contradicted, "I had assumed that." At that moment you discovered you had an assumption. You had the assumption all along, but if anybody had asked you before, what are your assumptions? That thing, whatever it was that was contradicted in future was not known to you. You did not know you had the assumption. Then, you cannot find out, you have no process for knowing. These things are unknowable until they happen. Unknowable unknowns are the challenge here. The halting problem, for example. I cannot know whether or not something is going to terminate until it doesn't terminate, but I do have a process for that. I can't tell that future. We have this observation that prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. It's probable that Niels Bohr actually said this, but there are other contenders. I find that interesting and fascinating, because this is in the past, this quote was made. We don't know who said that. If we don't know this about the past, how on earth are we going to be able to know about the future?

We try and tackle the future in various ways. Here's a roadmap. In fact, this is a template for a roadmap. You can go online, you can go to Google and find out PowerPoint templates for roadmaps. There's many of them, and lots of them use road images. Invariably, they suffer one problem. I don't have a problem with the roadmap. I have a problem with the fact that people don't use it correctly. Let me show you a real roadmap. This is Bristol. This is where I live. There's more than one road. That's important, because that's the point of a roadmap. If I only have one road, I don't really need a roadmap. People are misusing the metaphor. The metaphor is much more exciting when you show the different branches and possibilities. Because if you don't show those, it means apparently you know how to predict the future. I'm guessing that this particular PowerPoint template dates back to 2018. Of particular interest here is 2020. Somebody here had a roadmap that included 2020. How many of you people out there had roadmaps for 2020 back in 2018? How many of them say global pandemic changes everything about the nature of our work, and how we work, and how our clients interact with us, and how global markets work, and even the business of going to the shops? I'm pretty sure that nobody had that down. That was not knowable until it happened.

It doesn't take a pandemic to highlight this. People are making this mistake all the time. I hear often when people are talking about the requirements. They're talking about prioritizing by business value. That sounds great. Sounds very positive. We are trying to focus on the business. Does anyone have a problem? You can't do it. I'm not saying you shouldn't do, I'm saying you can't do it. That's a very different statement. You can't do it because it's impossible. You don't know what the business value of something is, unless you travel into the future, and then travel back. It's the traveling back that is hard. We're traveling into the future all of the time. It's the traveling back that's the hard part. That's why you can't prioritize by business value. You are always using an estimate. It is prioritizing by estimated business value. You might say, "Kevlin, you're just picking on words. It's just semantics." You're right. It is just semantics. Semantics is meaning. If you don't say what you mean, how are people supposed to know? If you're in the business of confusing estimates with actuals, we need to have a serious conversation. Because you cannot prioritize by business value, you can prioritize by estimated business value. That's a little more interesting. Ask me to change the way you work, as the great Grace Hopper said, "Humans are allergic to change. They love to say, 'We've always done it that way.' I try to fight that. That's why I have a clock on my wall that runs counter-clockwise." Grace Hopper is the reason I have a clock on my wall that does this. It's good for messing with people's minds, but it breaks an assumption.

A Distributed System is Knowable

Another impossibility that people often don't realize they're making, but they often do it when they're talking about data consistency, and indeed many things about distributed systems. When people assume, we want the data that we have here in Europe to be the same as the data that we have in Hong Kong and in Singapore, within a few milliseconds. Not realizing that the speed of light means that that's actually not going to be possible. We have limits to what is knowable within a distributed system. Leslie Lamport captured the essence of what it is to have a distributed system many years ago. A distributed system is one in which the failure of a computer you didn't even know existed can render your own computer unusable. It reminds us of the physicality and limitations of various systems.

It goes further than just a little bit of humor. Eric Brewer formulated this, originally was a principle, it eventually got proven. It's better known these days as the CAP theorem. It basically identifies three things, three qualities, three behaviors that we are interested in: consistency, availability, and partition tolerance. Consistency, it's about the data. Consistency is the idea that every time you request a value for a piece of data, you will receive the most recent value, or you will receive an error. We all receive the same answer or we receive, "I'm sorry, that wasn't available right now." Availability is every request for such data will receive an answer, but you're not guaranteed it's the latest answer. Partition tolerance. Partition is a fancy way of saying, I started with one network, now I've got two. In other words, basically, message loss, for whatever cause. The point there is, you can have two out of three of these, but never all three. That was proven 20 years ago. You can have things be consistent. I'm going to give you the right answer, or I'm going to give you an error status in the event of any failures. I can always give you an answer. I can give you the last cached version in the event of failure. There's also the interesting case that actually I can demonstrate, you can have the right answer, and everybody else has the right answer for once, but there is no tolerance for failure. That's actually the limiting case of, it is viable when you're running in a single process.

The CAP theorem is Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle for Distribution. All of these things are captured at a level by Douglas Adams, "We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty." Indeed, we have these, but we need to understand where these are. Because there are a number of cases where we find that we are being given inconsistent things. There's no reason for it. You often get this. You have a message that says you have four messages in your inbox, or you have four things in your scheduled post queue, or you have whatever it is, you have four of them. Then you look at the screen, it shows five. Clearly, one of these numbers is wrong, and it's clearly the four. There are clearly five. All you have to do is take the length of that. How do we end up with such a mess? Because that's nothing to do with distribution or eventual consistency. That's to do with the fact that we've got frontends. In a frontend, you are on a system that can be consistent. This is maybe a side effect of people using micro frontends or whatever, but this has nothing to do with the limitations of a distributed system. It's just the limitations of poorly designed client-side code. This bit is solvable.

Technical Debt Is Quantifiable as Financial Debt

The last point that I want to focus on is technical debt, that it's actually quantifiable as financial debt. People often do this. It's not possible. It's not just that it's not right, it's also not right. In other words, its intent is actually also not possible. We understand that systems can become more complex through compromises through the nature of time. Meir Lehman captures elegantly enough in 1980, "As an evolving program is continually changed, its complexity, reflecting deteriorating structure, increases unless work is done to maintain or reduce it." There are lots of different ways of talking about our systems and the quality, the abstract natures, we use different metaphors. The metaphor here that Martin Fowler helped popularize, came originally from Ward Cunningham, "Technical debt is a wonderful metaphor developed by Ward Cunningham to help us think about this problem." Ward came up with it in 1992. He didn't actually call it technical debt, he just said, we can imagine this is basically like debt. There's a parallel here, "Like financial debt, the technical debt incurs interest payments, which come in the form of the extra effort that we have to do in future development, because of the quick and dirty design choice." It doesn't have to be quick and dirty, it can be quite appropriate, but it's limited by the extent of our knowledge.

We need to remind ourselves, it's a wonderful metaphor. It's a metaphor. I find people taking it a little bit too literally. I found myself cautioning against the category of treating the technical debt metaphor, literally and numerically: converting code quality into a currency value on a dashboard. That's a disastrous thing to do. It's like the bad stats we talked about earlier. First of all, you cannot know what that value is financially. The best, you're only ever going to end up with an estimate of the debt. There are reasons even this is not the right way of looking at it, because it is based on a fallacy and a misunderstanding. If you can find the conversion rate, well done for you. I have had people tell me, no, we do that. If you've got a currency value, and there are tools that will give you a currency value, there are people, you can pay them money, and they will tell you what your future is. Don't be taken in by this. It's nonsense. It is bad science, answered based on a deep misunderstanding. When people have said, no, we have an estimate, and they've used the word estimate, well done then. We have an estimate, and it's not in currency values, it's in hours, hours of work, in order to repay that debt. They've made a slight category error there. They're assuming technical debt is the cost of repaying the debt. The problem is, technical debt is not the cost of repaying the debt. Technical debt is the cost of owning the debt. That was all of the wording that Martin, Ward, and many other people added. It's been lost in the excitement of, maybe we can use a number for this. Be careful.

The message of the technical debt metaphor is not simply a measure of the specific work needed to repay the debt. It is the additional time and effort added to all the past, present, and future work that comes from having the debt in the first place. The burden of debt is not momentary, it's not now. It is across all of these spans of time. How much did it cost you in the past? Then, again, in the future, how much will it cost you in the future? That value may be large or it may indeed turn out to be a zero, something you can write off. Which brings us to the end of six impossible things. These are not the only impossible things, there are other impossible things that I have hinted at. I have not fully explored the halting problem. I have not fully explored the question of the speed of light limiting certain behaviors in distributed systems, and so on. It should give you a taster of this idea that sometimes we need to step outside a little bit and look at things from a different angle that may spur on innovation. It may allow us to be creative, but it may also give us creative questions.

 

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Recorded at:

Nov 29, 2022

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