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Gartner’s Predictions for the Next 5 Years

by Abel Avram on Dec 22, 2011 |

Gartner predicts a consumer social network investment bubble burst in 2013, and over half of top Global 1,000 companies will store client’s sensitive data in clouds by 2016.

Daryl C. Plummer, Managing VP & Gartner Fellow, held a webinar entitled Gartner Top Predictions for 2012: Control Slips Away (registration required), and made a number of predictions for the years to come. The driving forces are Social driven by Behavior, Information providing Context, Mobile ensuring Access, and Cloud Computing as a Delivery mechanism, according to Plummer.

One of the predictions is that the consumer social network investment bubble will burst in 2013, and the similar enterprise bubble will have the same fate a year later. Also, a large number of top Fortune 500 organizations will not manage to exploit big data opportunities available.

  • By 2015, low-cost cloud services will cannibalize up to 15% of top outsourcing players' revenue.
  • In 2013, the investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks, and for enterprise social software companies in 2014.
  • By 2016, at least 50% of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet or mobile client, instead of a desktop client.
  • By 2015, mobile application development (AD) projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1.
  • By 2016, 40% of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloud service.
  • At YE16, more than 50% of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud.
  • By 2015, 35% of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department's budget.
  • By 2014, 20% of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas.
  • Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10% per year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities.
  • By 2015, the prices for 80% of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge.
  • Through 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage

One of the main problems for IT departments that Plummer draw attention to is that users no longer strictly obey IT’s policies for the organizations. For example, if one is given a RIM smartphone for his work, he might go out and buy an iPhone because that’s what he likes. Or if an organization bans a certain social network, users might still access them from their desk by using a communication channel that is not controlled by the IT department. Plummer said that 80% of respondents buy cloud services without asking IT, fearing that the IT department would delay the purchasing process or not accept it. Plummer recommends for IT organizations to find the “best ways to use the trends, not the best ways to stop the trends,” to coordinate things instead of controlling them. One example would be to let employees use the phone they want at work but being given less support compared to using the recommended mobile device.

As is the case with any prediction, we will have to wait and see if these predictions will come true, and how accurate they are.

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Previous years predictions by Christoph Kutzinski

Does someone have info on Gartner's previous years' predictions and how many of them really turned out to be true?

Re: Previous years predictions by Shi Kafune

No - no one can predict future.

Lot of their past prediction is pretty stupid.

Re: Previous years predictions by Richard Hightower

Which ones in particular? I was CTO for two sw development training and consulting companies. Then I ran my own company doing training and consulting. I spoke to a lot of development managers, real CTOs and IT managers at various levels. It seemed the higher up they were... The more they believed Gartner. To me, it seemed like many IT managers really gave a lot weight to Gartner and other like Gartner analysis. Also, I think there is a Gartner effect... If Gartner says it, then it is more likely to be true because so many managers think it's true that is sort of becomes a trend even if it was not.

Anyway, which prediction in particular did you really think they botched?

Did anyone predict IaaS or virtualization 2.0?

Did anyone predict twitter or Facebook or the iPad before they happened?


Rick Hightower

Mammatus Cloud Expertise

Re: Previous years predictions by Michael Stal

According to Gartner, we would have Microsoft DCOM as the dominant middleware today and Microsoft Windows would be the only guy in the block.

Re: Previous years predictions by Abel Avram

I think people misuse these predictions. They are not meant to be "prophecies" telling exactly what it is going to happen. They are forecasts based on current trends. Many of them are common sense. Anybody can tell that mobile is going to be mainstream, and cloud computing usage will continue to grow.

Also, if such a company predicts something and it does not happen, it does not mean all the other predictions are false. I'm pretty sure some of the predictions, anyone's predictions, will be invalidated by the real life which proves to be bigger than us.

People who make decisions need to base those decisions on something, their gut feeling, what some newspapers say, opening a fortune cookie, using Gartner's predictions, or a combination of those. Someone using such predictions in making decisions does not necessarily mean he or she is blindly follow Gartner's numbers.

@Michael: regarding the 2 predictions you mentioned as counterarguments. It's funny, but Windows is pretty much the only guy in the block at 90% market share if we do not consider mobile which is a much later development, and COM has a major role in upcoming Win8, so it will continue to live on, except that we don't really care about it. So those prediction were pretty good considering they were made 10 years ago or so. No one should adventure in making long term predictions. I remember science magazines in late 70's presenting a SF-like life on earth with flying cars, bases on the Moon, Mars and vacations on other planets. And they were so serious about it. And no one envisioned the Internet and its social impact. Short term predictions seem OK, long term are just for the visionaries, and there are few of them.

Re: Previous years predictions by Mike Wang

Usually a bunch of nonsense. They were saying SOA would conquer the world before. I don't know why they post this sort of thing on this site.

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